Climate projections

The latest UK climate projections, known as UKCP09, were launched in June 2009 by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) and the Met Office. UKCP09 gives climate information for the UK up to the end of this century. Projections of future changes to our climate are provided, based on simulations from climate models. The projections are based on a new methodology designed by the Met Office, which allows a measure of the uncertainty in future climate projections to be included in the information. The levels of uncertainty are expressed as probabilities, i.e. how likely a given change in temperature, precipitation or sea level rise is.

For the UK as a whole, the headline findings from UKCP09 are as follows:

• All areas of the UK get warmer, and the warming is greater in summer than in winter.
• There is little change in the amount of precipitation (rain, snow, hail etc.) that falls annually, but it is likely that more of it will fall in the winter, with drier summers, for much of the UK.
• Sea levels rise and are greater in the south of the UK than in the north.
• More frequent severe weather events are expected, such as heatwaves, droughts and floods.

Before exploring UKCP09, it is worth reading the FAQs and some explanatory notes:

• The projections make use of three emissions scenarios (high, medium and low emissions), which represent possible futures for global greenhouse gas emissions, and are based on assumptions about how the world will develop and change in socio-economic terms. Due to past emissions, a certain amount of climate change is inevitable, but beyond that, policies to cut carbon emissions will play a central role in determining whether we follow a high, medium or low emissions path.
• The UKCP09 key findings and published material report cumulative probabilities at the 10% (very unlikely to be less than), 50% (central estimate), and 90% (very unlikely to be greater than) probability levels. The “central estimate” refers to a change that has a 50% probability of being exceeded, and a 50% probability of being lower. It is not necessarily the most likely projection.
• The projections do not show a future climate forecast for the UK; they show a picture of the strength of evidence for different future climate changes.
• The projections are split into three time-slices, each of which is named after its central decade. So the 2020s refers to 2010-2039; the 2050s refers to 2040-2069; and the 2080s refers to 2070-2099.

UKCP09 maps and key findings for the East Midlands can be found here.
 

What do the latest climate projections mean for you?

The Local Government Association, in conjunction with Defra and UKCIP, has published a short guide to the climate projections for key decision makers in Local Authorities.